The Transmission Potential of Sars-Cov-2 during the Early Outbreak
Background: The newly emerging respiratory disease called COVID-19 , originated from a metropolitan city of the Hubei
Province of China, called Wuhan, in Dec 2019, demonstrated its epidemic potential with a rapid spread of this virus across the globe
in just 2 months period. This highlights the higher rate of transmissibility of this virus and further its higher morbidity and mortality
specially in aged population or people with co-morbidities and immune gap.
Objectives: To determine the clinical significance of travel history to an epidemic area and social distancing with COIVD -19
Material and methods: This cross sectional study was conducted in major/only tertiary care hospital of Nowshera in collaboration
with District Health Office, Nowshera from 15th Feb to 24th April 2020. Relevant information's were recorded in a predesigned
proforma prepared in SPSS version 25th for descriptive and inferential analysis.
Results: Out of total 378 suspects/patients, 272(72%) were males and 106(28%) females. The Mean with Standard deviation of
age of the suspects was 35+16.1 years. A significant relationship of an increase in age with positive cases (Chi-square
value=10.73, p=0.013) was observed. 13/41(31.70%) of the positive cases had a history of travel to an epidemic area. A statistically
significant relationship between COVID-19 infection and travel history (Chi-Square=5.86, p=0.015) was noted. The probability of
the infection in patients/suspects with history of travel to an epidemic area was 2.38 times(OR=2.38, 95%CI, 2.5-14.9). The relative
risk of infection was (rr=1.75, 95%CI, 1.16-4.88) as compared to suspects with no contact(rr=0.81, 95%CI, 0.6-1.0) respectively.
Conclusion: There is a significant impact of travel history to an area with COVID19 epidemics. This data also speaks itself on the
importance of social distancing in terms of history of travel to combat COVID-19.
Key words: COVID-19, Travel history, Social distancing, risk assessment, probability of disease, correlation of disease.
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