The Transmission Potential of Sars-Cov-2 during the Early Outbreak

  • Hamzullah Khan Qazi Hussain Ahmed Medical Complex Nowshera, Nowshera Medical College, MTI Nowshera


Background: The newly emerging respiratory disease called COVID-19 , originated from a metropolitan city of the HubeiProvince of China, called Wuhan, in Dec 2019, demonstrated its epidemic potential with a rapid spread of this virus across the globein just 2 months period. This highlights the higher rate of transmissibility of this virus and further its higher morbidity and mortalityspecially in aged population or people with co-morbidities and immune gap.Objectives: To determine the clinical significance of travel history to an epidemic area and social distancing with COIVD -19infections.Material and methods: This cross sectional study was conducted in major/only tertiary care hospital of Nowshera in collaborationwith District Health Office, Nowshera from 15th Feb to 24th April 2020. Relevant information's were recorded in a predesignedproforma prepared in SPSS version 25th for descriptive and inferential analysis.Results: Out of total 378 suspects/patients, 272(72%) were males and 106(28%) females. The Mean with Standard deviation ofage of the suspects was 35+16.1 years. A significant relationship of an increase in age with positive cases (Chi-squarevalue=10.73, p=0.013) was observed. 13/41(31.70%) of the positive cases had a history of travel to an epidemic area. A statisticallysignificant relationship between COVID-19 infection and travel history (Chi-Square=5.86, p=0.015) was noted. The probability ofthe infection in patients/suspects with history of travel to an epidemic area was 2.38 times(OR=2.38, 95%CI, 2.5-14.9). The relativerisk of infection was (rr=1.75, 95%CI, 1.16-4.88) as compared to suspects with no contact(rr=0.81, 95%CI, 0.6-1.0) respectively.Conclusion: There is a significant impact of travel history to an area with COVID19 epidemics. This data also speaks itself on theimportance of social distancing in terms of history of travel to combat COVID-19.Key words: COVID-19, Travel history, Social distancing, risk assessment, probability of disease, correlation of disease.
How to Cite
Hamzullah Khan. The Transmission Potential of Sars-Cov-2 during the Early Outbreak. J Saidu Med Coll Swat [Internet]. 1 [cited 2021Dec.4];11(4):211-6. Available from: